Kuchengeta Kwesimba Kunogona Kutevedzera Chishamiso Chekukura KweSolar uye Mhepo?

Kuchengeta Kwesimba Kunogona Kutevedzera Chishamiso Chekukura KweSolar uye Mhepo?

Mikana Mitsva yeTriyoni-Dhora yeShanduro yeMagetsi

Kubva pa "Kukurumidza Kuwedzera" kuenda ku "Unhu uye Kubudirira Kuvandudza"

Kubva pakupera kwaKukadzi 2025, huwandu hweChina hwakaiswa simba resolar nemhepo simba rakapfuura 1.456 bhiriyoni kilowatts, zvichirova simba rekupisa kekutanga kuita simba guru renyika. Solar yakaramba ichifambira mberi nechiyero chekukura chinodarika makumi mana muzana pagore, ichitungamirwa nemapurojekiti akagoverwa uye nekuisa zvigadziko zvakawanda pamwero mukuru. Kunyangwe kukura kwesimba remhepo kwakadzikira kusvika 40% nekuda kwezvirango zvepurojekiti uye kutenderera kwekuvaka, mhepo yekumahombekombe uye kugadziridzwa kwematurbine achembera anoramba ari madhiraivha akareba ekukura. Zvisineyi, kusasimba kwezvekuitazve uye matambudziko ekubatanidza grid akawedzera, neavhareji maawa ekushandisa emagetsi ekugadzira magetsi achidzikira nemaawa makumi matanhatu nerimwe kubva pagore rapfuura. Izvi zvakamanikidza kukura kwekudyara kwegridi kuti kuwedzere kusvika 17.6%, zvichiisa kuchengetedza kwesimba munzvimbo yekutarisa se "hub" huru.

Kubva ku "Policy-Driven" kuenda ku "Value Realization"

Kubva muna 2024, iyo yakawedzera yakaiswa simba remhando nyowani yekuchengetedza simba (kureva, mabhatiri) muChina yakasvika 74.66 GW, ichikwira 131.86% gore negore uye ikava inotungamira mhando, ichitsiva pumped hydro storage. Kukurumidzira kwakadaro kwekukura kunokurudzirwa nezvikonzero zvinotevera:

Tekinoroji innovation uye mutengo unodzikira: Lithium-ion bhatiri mitengo yadonha pamusoro pe60% kubva 2020, uye mazana matatu emakumi matatu MW-kirasi yakatsikirirwa kuchengetedzwa kwemhepo uye flywheel kuchengetedza matekinoroji akauya mukushandiswa kwemaindasitiri, achivandudza mashandiro ehurongwa ne300-3%.

Kurudziro yePolisi: Chirongwa cheMakore Mashanu cheKuvandudzwa kweNew-Type Energy Storage chakaratidza zvibodzwa zvakajeka panosvika 14, pamwe chete nemidziyo yemudunhu yakadai semuripo wehuwandu uye mutengo wemupata wepamusoro wekubatanidza kuchengetedza mumisika yemagetsi.

Grid zvinodiwa uye akasiyana maapplication: Sezvo chikamu chezvezvekugadziriswa chakayambuka 50% yesimba rakaiswa, grid inoshanduka inodiwa yakapfuura nepadenga. Kuchengeta iko zvino kwave kuita mabasa akakosha mukushandiswa senge renewable base transmission, maindasitiri/commercial peak shaving, uye emergency magetsi. Munguva yezhizha repamusoro ra2024, chengetedzo yakaverengera makumi mana neshanu muzana ematunhu ekuchajisa/kuburitsa, anopfuura 45% mune mamwe mapurovhinzi.

Divergent Kukura Logics uye Matambudziko

Kunyangwe ese ari maviri achinakidzwa neiyo label yesimba rakachena, renewable uye kuchengetedza zvinotevera nzira dzakasiyana:

Market Dynamics: Solar/mhepo ine rubatsiro uye kudzikiswa kwemitengo yekuvimba nayo, nepo chengetedzo ichifanirwa kuita pundutso pakuita mari kuburikidza nemisika yemagetsi.

Tekinoroji nzira: Solar/mhepo tekinoroji ndeye chigadzirwa-mutsara-chaiwo (semuenzaniso, silicon PV, maturbine akadyiswa zvakapetwa kaviri), nepo chengetedzo ichisiyana (lithium, mabhatiri ekuyerera, mweya wakadzvanywa, nezvimwewo).

Mamodheru emari: MaRenewable anofarira mutero-mutero, nepo chengetedzo ichipinda munzizi dzakawanda: simba arbitrage, masevhisi ekuwedzera, uye kugona kukwereta.

Matambudziko aripo anosanganisira kusashandisa (30% huwandu hwehuwandu pane mamwe mapurojekiti), zviitiko zvekuchengetedza zvinotungamira mukurasikirwa kwekuvimba, uye asina kupera kuyambuka-regional nzira dzekutumira. Mitemo senge 2024 Energy Law, zvisinei, iri kukurumidza musika-yakavakirwa masisitimu ekushandiswa kwekuchengetedza mugridi resiliency uye kubhadhara simba.

Kuchengeta Kwakananga Kupi?

Maindasitiri ekufungidzira anoona yeChina-itsva-mhando yekuchengetedza simba pa220 GW muna 2030, nehukuru hwemusika hunodarika ¥3 tiririyoni. Maitiro matatu ndiwo hwaro hwechiratidzo ichi:

Grid yemazuva ano zvinodiwa: Renewables ichave makumi emabhiriyoni emakilowatts muna 2060, nekuchengetedza ichiva vertex ye "chizvarwa-grid-load-storage" yekubatanidza.

Tekinoroji kusiyanisa: Sodium-ion mabhatiri, giravhiti yekuchengetedza, uye mamwe matekinoroji atove munhanho dzekutyaira, nepo mutengo wekuchengetedza kwenguva refu (4+ maawa) uchadonha ne40%.

Kuwedzera kwepasirese: 90% yemabhatiri epasi rose e-lithium anogadzirwa nemafemu eChina, ane kudiwa kwakanyanya mumisika yakaita seSoutheast Asia neSouth Africa ichikuchidzira kuvandudzwa kwefekitori.

Kuchengeta Haisi "Imwe Solar / Mhepo" - Ndiyo "Iyo New Infrastructure" yeEnergy Revolution.

Nepo solar nemhepo zvichipa "chizvarwa," kuchengetedza kunotarisira "kudzikama." Kushanduka kwayo kunoenderana nekuchinja kwemusika wemagetsi, kukura kwetekinoroji, uye nyaya dzekushandisa dzakapararira. Sezvo mutemo, misika, uye hunyanzvi zvinosangana, kuchengetedza kuri munzira yakatsaukana kubva kune zvinogonekazve uye inomira pamucheto wekuve inovimbisa matrillion-dollar muganho mumakwikwi ekusarerekera kabhoni.