Kuchengetedzwa kwesimba rekutengesa nemaindasitiri kunogona kuunza budiriro mugore rinouya!

Nekudzika kweshanduko yesimba repasi rose uye "dual kabhoni" chinangwa, kutengeserana uye maindasitiri ekuchengetedza simba ari kuunza mikana yebudiriro isati yamboitika. Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2025, musika wepasi rose weindasitiri nekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza simba unoratidza kukura kwakaputika, rutsigiro rwepolicy kubva kuhurumende, chiyero chiri kukura pakati pekupa kwemusika uye kudiwa, uye tarisiro huru yekuwana pundutso, pamwe chete kutyaira chikamu ichi kuita chiitiko chitsva.

Kutanga, Kukura Kwemusika uye Yakaiswa Capacity Forecast

* Saizi yemusika: Sekureva kwaDaintelo mushumo, musika wepasi rose weindasitiri nekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza magetsi uchave unosvika mabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu emadhora muna 15, uye unotarisirwa kukura kusvika pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu emadhora panosvika 2023 pamwero wekukura kwegore (CAGR) we45%.

* Yakaiswa simba: TrendForce inotarisira kuti huwandu hwepasi rose hwakaiswa hwekuchengetedza simba idzva kusvika 86 GW/221 GWh muna 2025, 27%/36% gore-pagore kukura kubva muna 2024, neindasitiri nekutengeserana kudivi rekuchengetedza simba richiita basa rakakosha.

* Yakakamurwa kuita kwemusika (semuenzaniso, musika weUS)

Sekureva kweUS Energy Storage Monitor mushumo wakabatanidzwa pamwe chete neAmerican Council for Clean Energy (ACP) uye Wood Mackenzie, iyo US magetsi ekuchengetedza musika (utility, yakagoverwa, yekutengesa, uye maindasitiri) ichawedzera inosvika 15.2 GW / 48.7 GWh yekuiswa kutsva muna 2025, iyo:

Utility side: inotarisirwa kukura ne22%, inoverengera chikamu chepamusoro;

Kugoverwa kwesimba rekuchengetedza: zvakanyanya kushanduka nemutemo, kurudziro yekukurudzira;

Rutivi rwezvokutengeserana uye rwemaindasitiri: rinoramba rakasimba, nekuiswa kutsva kwe 0.4 GW/0.8 GWh, kusvika 11% gore negore.

* Global market performance

Sekureva kwaWood Mackenzie Q2 2024 "Global Energy Storage Market Outlook", kusvika pakupera kwa2024, iyo yepasirese (kunze kwekuchengeterwa kwepombi) yakawedzera yakaiswa 159 GW/358 GWh, inotarisirwa kuti kubva 2024-2033 ichawedzerwa imwe 926 GW/2 789 XNUMX GWh

Aya data anoratidza kuti, nekuvandudzwa kwekukura kwetekinoroji uye mutengo uchiramba uchidzikira, hwaro hwakaiswa hweindasitiri nekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza huchaunza kuwedzera kukuru mugore rinouya.

Chechipiri, multi-nyika yakanaka superposition

1. United States

* Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) inoenderera mberi nekupa inosvika makumi matatu muzana mutero wekudyara kiredhiti (ITC), uye zvimwe zvinokurudzira zvekugadzira mudzimba nemapurojekiti enharaunda ane mari shoma.

* FERC Order 841 inosundidzira kuvhura misika yemagetsi kukuchengetedza simba uye inokurudzira kuchengetedza kutora chikamu mune frequency regulation uye misika yekugona.

* 3.8 GW yesimba idzva rekuchengetedza muUS muQ3 2024, yakakwira 80% gore-pamusoro-gore, ine ingangoita gumi nemaviri GW inoiswa gore rega, yakakwira-nguva yakakwira.

2. China

* Chirongwa chegumi nemana cheMakore mashanu chinoisa kuchengetedza kwesimba idzva sechinhu chakakosha chekusimudzira, zvichikurudzira kuti panosvika 14, iyo yakaiswa simba rekuchengetedza simba ichasvika 2025 miriyoni kilowatts (GW).

* Multi-provincial tariff incentives uye kuvakwa kwemusika wemagetsi kuti ikurumidze iyo maindasitiri nekutengeserana rutivi rwesimba rekuchengetedza simba rekumhara.

3. Europe

* EU Renewable Energy Directive revision (RED II/III) kusimbisa zvinodiwa zve synergistic kusimudzira kwekuchengetedza simba uye simba idzva.

* Germany, United Kingdom nedzimwe nyika dziri kuzoparura green hydrogen, magetsi ekuchengetedza magetsi anoparadzira rubatsiro kubatsira mabhizinesi kuderedza mari yekuvaka.

4. Nyika dzirikubudirira

* Sangano reInternational Energy Agency (IEA) rinotarisira kuti pasi rose rakachena simba rekudyara mari richasvika US$2.2 trillion muna 2025, iyo inosvika US$66 bhiriyoni ichaiswa mukuchengetedza simba, zvichiratidza kusavimbika kwemari yepasirese mune tarisiro yemubairo yekuchengetedza simba.

Policy dividends ari stacking; vashandisi veindasitiri nevekutengesa vanogona kugashira akawanda ekurudziro yekuvandudza zvakanyanya kugona kweprojekiti uye kudzoka pakudyara.

Chechitatu, kuwandisa kana kuwandisa?

* Supply side: nekuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira mabhatiri (mafekitori ebhatiri muChina, South Korea, neEurope ari kuramba achiuya), mutengo wesimba rekuchengetedza simba wakadzikira kubva kuUS $ 780/kWh muna 2013 kuenda kuUS $ 139/kWh muna 2023, donho repamusoro pe80%.

* Demand side: iyo maindasitiri uye ekutengesa simba rekushandisa simba rakatarisana nekuwedzera kwakasimba kwepamusoro uye mupata wemutengo wemagetsi musiyano, kudiwa kubhadharisa, uye simba rekugumira kuongororwa kudzvanywa, kunyanya mumapaki ekugadzira, nzvimbo dzedhata, zviteshi zvekuchaja, uye mamwe-epamusoro-simba-kushandisa mamiriro. Kudiwa kwekuchengetedza simba kwawedzera.

* Grid resilience inoda: kupinza kwepamusoro kwesimba idzva kunotungamira kune yakanyanya kuoma grid regulation, maindasitiri uye ekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza anogona kupa "on-saiti frequency regulation", "kumucheto standby", uye mamwe masevhisi ekudzikisa kudzvanywa pamagetsi grid.

Kubva pakuona kwakazara, pasi pemubatanidzwa wekudzikisa mutengo uye kudiwa kwakasiyana-siyana, mativi ekupa uye kudiwa ari kukurumidza kumisa, uye musika uri kusimuka zvishoma nezvishoma kubva ku "kunodhiraivha" kuenda ku "kuda-kudhonzwa".

Chechina, iyo yepasirese yekuchengetera simba rakasiyana mari modhi

1. Peak uye Mupata Arbitrage uye Peak Shaving, uye Mupata Kuzadza

* Mabhizinesi anogona kuchengetedza 15% -30% yemutengo wemagetsi nekuchaja panguva yemupata uye kuburitsa munguva yepamusoro.

* Yakasanganiswa nemagetsi ekugadzira photovoltaic, chiyero chekuzvishandisa chinowedzerwa kusvika pamusoro pe70%, ichiwedzera kupfupisa nguva yekubhadhara.

2. Kuda mhinduro uye mabasa ebetsero

* Kutora chikamu mumabasa ekubatsira akadai se frequency regulation, inotenderera standby, black start, etc. mumusika wemagetsi, ine an yearized rate yekudzoka kusvika ku2% -5% (zvichienderana nemitemo yemusika weko).

* Mari yemusika wekugona mune dzimwe nyika inoita gumi-10% yemari yese.

3. Energy Management Contracts (EMCs) uye kugoverana kwesimba rekuchengetedza

* Makambani echitatu-bato remagetsi manejimendi (ESCOs) anobatsira vatengi vekutengesa nemaindasitiri kuwana "zero threshold" kutumirwa uye kuderedza kudzvanywa kwemari kuburikidza ne "zero-investment power buy share" modhi.

* Multi-User Virtual Power Plant (VPP) modhi, iyo inobatanidza yakaganhurirwa maindasitiri uye ekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza midziyo kuti iwane maprimiyamu epamusoro mumusika wemagetsi. 4.

4. Carbon Market uye Carbon Allowance Trading

* Masisitimu ekuchengetedza magetsi anogona kubatanidzwa nekabhoni yekutengesa mapuratifomu kuona kudzikiswa kwekabhoni emission uye kuwana kabhoni kiredhiti nekudzikisa yakakwira-kabhoni magetsi kutenga.

Diversified purofiti modhi, kuitira kuti maindasitiri uye ekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza mapurojekiti asangove nebasa rekuchengetedza mutengo, asi zvakare zvishoma nezvishoma ive nyowani yekukura purofiti.

Indasitiri uye yekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza rakamira manheru e "Blowout development". Kubva pachikamu chepolicy, chiyero chemusika, kugovera uye kudiwa kwechiyero kune yakasarudzika purofiti, zvinhu zvese zvinonongedza kune imwechete mhedziso: gore rinotevera richave indasitiri uye yekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza kukurumidza kumhara uye chiyero chekushandiswa kweiyo nguva yakaoma. Kune vagadziri vemidziyo yekuchengetedza simba, makambani ebasa resimba, uye vashandisi vebhizinesi, dhizaini yekutanga, kurima kwakadzika zvigadziriso zvinokunda mikana yemusika.