Mangani mamwe makore angave iyo indasitiri yekuchengetedza simba ingave yakakurumbira?

Zvinoenderana neazvino indasitiri data uye maitiro ekuongorora muna 2025, iyo indasitiri yekuchengetera simba icharamba ichichengetedza kukurumidza kukura mune ramangwana, uye inotarisirwa kuramba ichipisa kusvika 2030, uye zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pakukura kusvika pakukura kwemhando yepamusoro. Iyi inotevera dudziro yakazara kubva pazviyero zvezvakakosha zvekutyaira zvinhu, kukura kwemusika kugona, tekinoroji iteration gwara uye njodzi dzinogona kuitika:

1. Core kutyaira zvinhu: mutemo + kudiwa + tekinoroji "troika"

Rutsigiro rwepolicy runoramba ruchiwedzera

Pasi pechinangwa cheChina che "dual carbon", simba idzva rekuchengetedza rinotsanangurwa zvakajeka sechitsigiro chikuru chekuvaka simba idzva remagetsi. Muna 2025, iyo pfungwa yemitemo ichachinja kune kuvandudzwa kwemaitiro anotarisana nemusika, kusanganisira kubhadharwa kwemutengo wemagetsi, kutengesa nzvimbo, kugoverana magetsi ekuchengetedza magetsi, nezvimwewo, kusimudzira shanduko yekuchengetedza simba kubva "kutungamirirwa nemutemo" kune "inotungamirirwa nemusika". Semuyenzaniso, nzvimbo zhinji dzakaunza hutsva hwekuchengetedza simba rekurejesa marongero ekuongorora nzira dzemari yekuchengetedza simba kutora chikamu mumusika wemagetsi.

Mumisika yemhiri kwemakungwa, United States, Europe, Middle East nedzimwe nzvimbo dzinokurudzira kudiwa kuburikidza nerubatsiro, kurudziro yemutero uye zvinodiwa zvekugadzira zvemuno. Semuenzaniso, mukupindura kuwedzera kwemitengo yekuchengetedza simba kusvika 25% muna 2026, United States ichaona kumhanyisa kuisa muna 2025.

Rigid kudiwa kwekuwedzera kupinda kwesimba idzva

Chikamu chesimba idzva rekugadzira magetsi chiri kuramba chichikwira (China inotarisirwa kudarika makumi maviri muzana muna 20), uye kusagadzikana kwayo kunoda kuchengetedza kwesimba kwepamusoro uye frequency regulation. Chikamu chepasi rose chekuchengetedza simba idzva chiri kuwedzera. Muna 2025, iyo yepasi rose nyowani photovoltaic yakaiswa simba inotarisirwa kusvika 2025GW, ichifambisa kukura panguva imwe chete yekudiwa kwekuchengetedza simba. Pamusoro pezvo, mamiriro ari kubuda akadai senzvimbo dzedata ane chinoputika kudiwa kwe "photovoltaic storage integration", uye photovoltaic storage-powered data centers muMiddle East dzatove nehupfumi.

Tekinoroji kufambira mberi uye kuderedzwa kwemutengo

Battery cell tekinoroji: hombe-inokwana bhatiri maseru (500Ah +) uye kwenguva refu ekuchengetedza simba masisitimu (4h +) ari kukurumidza kukurumbira kwavo. Muna 2025, mutengo wesimba rekuchengetedza masisitimu unotarisirwa kudonha ne15% -20% zvichienzaniswa ne202435.

Kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvitsva: Mabhatiri e-sodium-ion akapinda muchikamu chekutengesa, uye zvakanakira mabhatiri ehurumende mukuchengetedza uye hupenyu huri kubuda zvishoma nezvishoma. 2025 inogona kuve gore rekutanga rekushandisa kukuru.

Hungwaru kusimudzira: AI tekinoroji inokwidziridza simba rekuchengetedza sisitimu kurongeka uye yambiro yekukanganisa, uye dijitari mapatya tekinoroji inovandudza mashandiro nekugadzirisa510.

2. Kukura kwemusika kugona: Global multi-regional kubuda, mikana yezvimiro yakasimbiswa

Kusiyanisa musika wedunhu

China: Muna 2025, simba rakaiswa padivi regidhi rinotarisirwa kudarika 110GWh, neInner Mongolia, Xinjiang nemamwe mapurovhinzi matsva emagetsi ari kutungamira; mwero wekukura kwemaindasitiri nekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza padivi remushandisi unodarika 50%, uye kutengwa kwepakati kwemabhizinesi anonyanya kushandisa simba pakati peChina kwave kuita.

United States: Kumhanyisa kuisa pre-mita simba rekuchengetedza kwaita kuti hutsva hwakaiswa hupfuure 45GWh muna 2025, uye musika wepamusoro-soro wakakwezva makambani eChinese kuti atumire kugadzirwa kwenzvimbo.

Europe: Rubatsiro rwePolisi uye nzira dzemusika wekugona dzakura, uye chiyero chekukura chinotarisirwa kudarika 60% muna 2025, neGermany neSpain semisika mikuru yekuwedzera.

Middle East: Zvirongwa zvitsva zvekutsiva simba muSaudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates nedzimwe nyika zvakagadzira mapurojekiti eGWh-level, angave musika wechina wepasi rose wekuchengetedza simba muna 2025.

Segmented track mikana

Kuchengetera kwakakura: Iyo yepasirese nyowani yakaiswa simba inodarika 70%, ine 10GWh-level mapurojekiti muMiddle East uye yakazvimirira magetsi ekuchengetedza magetsi zviteshi muUnited States ichiva simba guru.

Maindasitiri uye ekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza: Mwero wekukura kwemusika wekunze unodarika zana, uye mamiriro ekushandisa akasiyana (senge nzvimbo dzedata uye mapaki eindasitiri).

Yenguva refu yekuchengetedza simba: Kudiwa kwemasisitimu akareba kupfuura maawa mana kwawedzera, uye kushambadzira kwemabhatiri ekuyerera uye akadzvanywa emhepo ekuchengetedza simba tekinoroji kwawedzera.

3. Tekinoroji iteration gwara: kubva ku "chikuru" kuenda ku "smart"

Yakakura-inokwana bhatiri maseru uye system kusangana

Muna 2025, huwandu hwemabhatiri maseru achasvika 400Ah +, uye huwandu hwemakumi maviri-tsoka egiya rekuchengetedza simba masisitimu anodarika 20MWh. Makambani anotungamira akadai seCATL uye Envision Energy achatungamira kukwidziridzwa kwehunyanzvi.

Kubudirira mune itsva simba rekuchengetedza tekinoroji

Sodium-ion mabhatiri: BYD, CATL uye vamwe vatanga zvakatsaurirwa zvigadzirwa zvekuchengetedza simba, uye mutengo wekugadzira wakawanda unotarisirwa kuve wakaderera pane iwo we lithium mabhatiri muna 2025.

Solid-state mabhatiri: Qingtao Energy, Tailan Nyowani Energy uye mamwe mapurojekiti akaiswa mukugadzirwa, ane kuchengetedzwa kwepamusoro kwakagadziridzwa kune makuru-akawanda ekuchengetedza simba mamiriro.

Giridhi-mhando yekuchengetedza simba: Huawei neSungrow vakaisa inoshanda grid rutsigiro tekinoroji, uye mwero wekupinda unogona kusvika 7GW muna 2025.

Intelligence uye zvinhu zvitsva

AI inopa simba kufembera kwehupenyu hwebhatiri uye kushanda kwakachengeteka uye kugadzirisa, uye silicon carbide (SiC) zvishandiso zvinovandudza kushanda kwesimba rekuchengetedza magetsi, kutyaira iyo system simba density kuwedzera ne30%.

4. Njodzi dzinogona kuitika uye matambudziko

Kuvandudza maindasitiri uye makwikwi akawedzera

Muna 2024, kutenderera kwemukati kwemutengo wakaderera kunotungamira kubuda kwemabhizinesi madiki uye epakati. Muna 2025, chikamu chemusika wemabhizinesi gumi epamusoro chinogona kudarika makumi masere neshanu muzana, uye mabhizinesi ane kumashure tekinoroji kana asina kusimba capital chain achasangana nekubviswa.

Kusava nechokwadi kwemitemo uye nzira dzemusika

Mune mamwe matunhu, simba rekuchengetedza rekutumira mitemo haina kukwana, uye peak-mupata mutengo musiyano mari haina kugadzikana; mutemo wemitero weUS uye zvinodiwa zvekugadzirwa kwenzvimbo kuMiddle East zvinowedzera kuoma kwekuenda mhiri kwemakungwa.

Mabhodhoro ehunyanzvi uye kumanikidza kwemitengo

Iko kushandiswa kwemaindasitiri emagetsi e-sodium kunomanikidzwa nekuchinja kwemitengo yelithium, mutengo wekugadzirwa kwehuwandu hwemabhatiri ehurumende yakasimba, uye mutengo wekuchengetedza simba kwenguva refu unoda kuderedzwa kusvika pasi pe0.3 yuan/kWh.

5. Ramangwana Outlook: Kukura kwepamusoro kunogona kutarisirwa pamberi pe2030

Tajiro yemusika

Inofungidzirwa kuti pasi rose simba rekuchengetedza rakaiswa simba richapfuura 250GWh muna 2025, uye nzvimbo yemusika ichapfuura 200 bhiriyoni yuan; panosvika 2030, China yakawedzera kuisirwa kugona kwesimba idzva rekuchengetedza inogona kusvika 220GW, uye huwandu hwese hwekubuda kweindasitiri huchapfuura 3 trillion yuan.

Investment direction

Yakakwira barriers link: Simba rekuchengetedza magetsi (PCS) uye masystem ekubatanidza (seSungrow) ane pundutso yakasimba uye yakakosha premium mumisika yekunze.

Makambani anotungamirira teknolojia: CATL (mabheteri masero), Haichen Energy Storage (magetsi e-sodium), Huawei (grid-type energy storage), nezvimwewo vane zvikomborero zvekutanga.

Yenguva refu yekuchengetedza simba track: Liquid kuyerera mabhatiri uye compressed mweya ekuchengetedza simba mapurojekiti akagamuchira kutsigirwa kwepolicy uye akakodzera kurongeka kwenguva refu.

Iyo "moto" yeindasitiri yekuchengetedza simba ichaenderera mberi kusvika 2030, asi iyo yekukura modhi ichachinja kubva pakuwedzera kwakawanda kuenda kune tekinoroji-inotyairwa uye misika-yakanatswa mashandiro. Mumakore mashanu anotevera, makambani ane core tekinoroji uye kugona kwepasirese marongero achatonga musika, uye kusimba kwetsigiro yemitemo, kukurumidza kwekudzikisa mutengo wetekinoroji, uye kufambira mberi kwekuchinja kwemusika wemagetsi zvinhu zvakakosha zvekuenderera mberi kukurumbira kweindasitiri. Vagadziri vemari vanogona kutarisa kune madiki-sechikamu senge hombe yekuchengetedza, indasitiri uye yekutengesa simba rekuchengetedza, uye sodium magetsi / akasimba-nyika mabhatiri.